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Like other seniors, Jerry and Shelley Goodwin couldn't wait to move to Florida, but it wasn't sunshine and beaches that nudged the Oklahoma City couple off the fence.

They moved because of escalating real estate prices.

"We decided to just bite the bullet and do it. We thought that if we waited until next year, the same house could be $100,000 more," said Jerry Goodwin, 72, who bought a $275,000 house at Barrington Ridge, a new development off Lockwood Ridge Road in Manatee County.

Sharp price increases in housing are forcing scores of retirees and others to question just how long they can hold out before making the move to Southwest Florida.

The median house price in the region has shot up 34.6 percent so far in 2004, and while sellers might cheer escalating property values, buyers say they worry that unless they act now their dreams of retirement could pass right by.

At the very least, they might be forced to settle for less house, fewer custom upgrades and a mortgage.

The Goodwins, both Realtors at Prudential Alliance Real Estate in Oklahoma City, count themselves fortunate that they kept close tabs on Southwest Florida's real estate scene, which enabled them to move forward on their plans before being priced out of the market.

The couple bought a 2,400-square-foot, three-bedroom, two-bath house that backs onto a pond. Since May, when they signed a contract to buy the house, its value has rocketed by $50,000, Jerry Goodwin said.

"Within the next two months it will probably go up another $20,000," he said. "It's just mind-boggling. In 25 years of selling real estate I've never seen anything like it. If we get 5 percent appreciation around here we consider it a lot. "

Just how long the upward march in prices continues is hard to gauge.

Realtors insist that any leveling off might be years away, given the demand for housing sparked by waves of retirees from the Northeast and Midwest.

But even if appreciation slows, prices are not likely to spiral downward or level off that much.

No end in sight

During the third quarter, Sarasota-Bradenton posted a 32 percent increase in median price, enough to lead the state, and that came during one of the state's worst periods in history for hurricane activity.

Stan Gerberer, an economist at Orlando-based Fishkind & Associates, said that thanks to rising interest rates buyers here and statewide should expect prices to level off a bit in 2005, say from 30 percent to 20 percent appreciation in the Sarasota-Bradenton market.

Gerberer expects rates to eventually climb into the 7 percent range over the next two years.

The increasing rates will force some entry-level buyers to scale down or put off their purchases until market conditions improve. Others who finance could be pushed into buying smaller or looking at less-expensive markets. He insists, though, that demand isn't likely to plunge.

"At 7 percent interest on a $200,000 home, that's another $165 a month. For some people, that may make the difference between what's affordable and what is not," Gerberer said. "It might take out the very marginal end of the market. "

Higher interest rates will not slacken overall demand, he says, because 350,000 people a year are moving into Florida and millions more are expected during the next 10 years.

A booming population is what will enable Florida, and a handful of other hot markets, including California, Las Vegas and the Northeast, to largely sidestep any sharp turns in appreciation as rates begin to climb.

That optimism might change, however, should interest rates climb into double-digit range, but economists and real estate experts say they don't expect that to happen anytime soon, perhaps for years.

"You may not see 30 percent appreciation, but nonetheless prices will be increasing," said Lawrence Yun, an economist at the National Association of Realtors.

What to do, what to do

All this leaves buyers wondering just how they should respond.

Should they buy now, while their choices are limited by a tight supply of houses, or hope for some kind of leveling off in price and supply?

Realtors say that the time to buy is now. Prices aren't going anywhere but up, even if supply moderates.

"The problem right now as I see it is low inventory," said Lynn Parker, president of the Manatee Association of Realtors. "And with long lead times on construction, a lot of buyers are looking at resales. We have lots of buyers. It's just hard to find them the right house because of the low inventory. "

Michael Taylor, managing broker at Coldwell Banker's Lakewood Ranch and Creekwood offices, agrees, and suggests that what's occurring with prices in Sarasota-Bradenton happened in Naples 10 years ago.

"I think if buyers want to buy in this marketplace, they should buy quickly," he said. "In Naples, prices were climbing for about 10 years. Now they're starting to level off, but they've never had a drop in price. They've never taken a hit.

"What happened there is what's happening with us now. All these buyers want to buy and all these people want to live in paradise. I don't see things leveling off until the demand is met, and I don't see that happening in the near future."

Steve DuToit, a Realtor with Keller Williams in Sarasota, attributes the low inventory -- down some 25 percent -- to the recent hurricanes that battered the state. They produced higher costs for materials and put a strain on labor.

The two issues are causing delays in homebuilding, which, in turn, is putting pressure on resales.

"In some developments, it's taking 18 months to build a home and the builders are refusing to lock into a price," DuToit said.

"It's a real struggle, not only for first-time buyers, but you've got people moving from being married to being single and then there are all these people trying to downsize," he said, referring to retirees.

As inventory tightens and prices escalate, the market's bottom end is hit first. Realtors say that homes that only a year ago that cost $150,000 -- the entry level for many buyers -- now are being listed for $190,000 or $200,000.

"I had a home that sold for $156,000 four months ago. The buyers wanted to turn around and sell it," DuToit said. "They had nine or 10 showings last Thursday. It sold for $189,000. "

Of the owners, "I'd say they are shocked."

Jumping in

Out-of-state buyers getting a whiff of the pricing frenzy are jumping into the market sooner rather than later, says John Allaman of Michael Saunders & Co.

"I just had a call from a woman who said her son wants to buy a house right now. They think they're going to pay more money if they wait. There's a lot of truth to that," he said. "I have friends who were really bummed they didn't buy in March of last year. Of course, for first-time home buyers, it's really tough for them. "

Single mother Sonya Blunt, 32, knows just how tough. After three months and 12 walkthroughs of potential homes, she found a three-bedroom bungalow at Bayou Oaks in northern Sarasota County late last year.

She paid $135,000. She figures she was one of the last buyers in Sarasota County to pay that little for a home.

"It wasn't exactly easy. I just kept looking," said Blunt, who works at Eyeglass.com on Main Street in Sarasota and found her home with help from Allaman. "It was really discouraging at first. There just wasn't a lot out there. "

When she found the house, Blunt jumped at the opportunity. She is not sure how much the property has escalated in value over the last 10 months, but in the past year homes near her have increased by $20,000 to $40,000.

"Just perusing the real estate section, I can tell prices have gone up," she said. "I definitely lucked out. A lot of people were telling you've got buy now, you've got to buy now.

"Prices are going crazy. That's why I didn't wait."